Bass fishing predictions for next week

[Travis C.]

Originally Posted by Jim

there is always more to learn.

That sums it all up right there and as fishermen it is something we should keep doing.

Jim, thank you for the kind words. Your progam is going to revolutionize fishing from all ranks and not just for the average weekend angler. I really look forward to seeing the data side of things as you post them on here. the numbers side of things is just as interesting as the practical.

We can all learn from each other and that makes this site so great. One more useful tool to have in our arsenal.

This thread kind of swayed a little from you initial post Jim and I apologize.

We need to make sure to have a roll call after this week is over to see how well everyone did.

[whrizob]

on thing that might be over looked here it stable water conditions. for example, alot of resivors are not stable lakes. water is always up and down. a bass will learn to adapt to the conditions it lives in. changing conditions make them constantly change the way they live and eat. making anglers change the way they fish for them. and as we all know, most anglers are one demintional and cant learn how to adapt to the conditions. therefore making it tuff for them to catch fish. now with that said, stable weather means stable water. usually! and this effects the fish different times of the year. stable water is a big key in the spring, due the spawn. but stable water in the heat of the summer can be terrible. i always like changing conditions in the summer. wether its increased water flow, a big storm coming, or alot of rain raising the water levels. all is good in summer, but will make tuff if it happens in the spring. now with that said, you still have to have warm water before a fish will spawn. water temp is the number one element in when a fish spawns. the prespawn is probably best time to catch these fish and usually cant be caught on just about anyting. so i guess what im saying is that is takes warming water, stable weather, and stable water to increase the catch rate on largemouth bass in the spring. its hard to have one with out the other, but i believe it takes all 3 to effect the way bass react. just a thought, just my opinion.

[Jim]

Originally Posted by whrizob

on thing that might be over looked here it stable water conditions. for example, alot of resivors are not stable lakes. water is always up and down. a bass will learn to adapt to the conditions it lives in. changing conditions make them constantly change the way they live and eat. making anglers change the way they fish for them. and as we all know, most anglers are one demintional and cant learn how to adapt to the conditions. therefore making it tuff for them to catch fish. now with that said, stable weather means stable water. usually! and this effects the fish different times of the year. stable water is a big key in the spring, due the spawn. but stable water in the heat of the summer can be terrible. i always like changing conditions in the summer. wether its increased water flow, a big storm coming, or alot of rain raising the water levels. all is good in summer, but will make tuff if it happens in the spring. now with that said, you still have to have warm water before a fish will spawn. water temp is the number one element in when a fish spawns. the prespawn is probably best time to catch these fish and usually cant be caught on just about anyting. so i guess what im saying is that is takes warming water, stable weather, and stable water to increase the catch rate on largemouth bass in the spring. its hard to have one with out the other, but i believe it takes all 3 to effect the way bass react. just a thought, just my opinion.

More great thoughts!

I was talking mostly about water temperature stability, but water elevation (flooding, stable, or falling) definitely has an effect.

The great thing about lots of data is I can check your ideas against the results of 30,000 TN bass fisherman for the last 10 years. If I add season as a variable in the water temp change and trend analysis, here is what the results show.

Bass spawning season: By far the best combination is very stable conditions with no warming or cooling trend. So Whrizob is right for the spawn - Stable conditions are best.

Summer bass season: Not as clear cut answer, with many moderately good conditions, but the top two conditions are Moderately variable water temperature with either a falling or stable temperature trend. So again Whrizob is right. Some variability in summer conditions improves the catch of largemouth bass. Interestingly very fast and large changes in summer water temperature are some of the worst conditions during the summer. Probably associated with big storms that really muddy things up. Also very stable conditions are below average for catching bass.

So Whrizob was right in all three cases. I bet that doesn't happen too often.

just kidding! When it comes to bass fishing you are usually right.

I will have to add the water elevation change into the analysis and see what effect that has. More work for another day

Jim

Originally Posted by Jim

GPS waypoints will be available soon. I am still fiddling with the best way to output them so they will be useful to you all.

Right now I can get them into Google earth or google maps so you and see the spots on your computer, but am working on getting them in a file format for hummingbird and lowrance units. That is not as simple, but hopefully will be solved soon.

Hopefully real soon I can get you some test locations to see if they hold fish.

Take care,
Jim

if you give way pionts away in your program like you say then you will have to give out parking passes so not everyone is on the same waypiont at once lmao

[Jim]

Originally Posted by sterling21

if you give way pionts away in your program like you say then you will have to give out parking passes so not everyone is on the same waypiont at once lmao

Parking passes? Good idea. How much do you think I could charge for that?!

[whrizob]

Originally Posted by Jim

More great thoughts!

I was talking mostly about water temperature stability, but water elevation (flooding, stable, or falling) definitely has an effect.

The great thing about lots of data is I can check your ideas against the results of 30,000 TN bass fisherman for the last 10 years. If I add season as a variable in the water temp change and trend analysis, here is what the results show.

Bass spawning season: By far the best combination is very stable conditions with no warming or cooling trend. So Whrizob is right for the spawn - Stable conditions are best.

Summer bass season: Not as clear cut answer, with many moderately good conditions, but the top two conditions are Moderately variable water temperature with either a falling or stable temperature trend. So again Whrizob is right. Some variability in summer conditions improves the catch of largemouth bass. Interestingly very fast and large changes in summer water temperature are some of the worst conditions during the summer. Probably associated with big storms that really muddy things up. Also very stable conditions are below average for catching bass.

So Whrizob was right in all three cases. I bet that doesn't happen too often.

just kidding! When it comes to bass fishing you are usually right.

I will have to add the water elevation change into the analysis and see what effect that has. More work for another day

Jim

lol! i hear ya!

[whrizob]

Originally Posted by Jim

Parking passes? Good idea. How much do you think I could charge for that?!

i will take a season pass!

you know guys i know all this new inventions and knowledge is great to help people out to catch fish , an i will b first to amit that i have side image an want all the new gadgets , and i want all the lake info from all the guys fishing out on the lake but you know i have seen some of the old timers go out with a lil old boat with old rod and reelsno new graphs or gps an catch justt as many ,moreand bigger fish then a man with all the bells and whistles .you know some times its just better to go an just fish .tournaments got love them but when you give all this expensive stuff and info to help people catch fish when it comes down to fishing a man with the most money has the greater advantage over alot of people now i know you have to know how yo use it for it to help somone catch fish but when is enough info and inventions enough ? i dont really know but i can tell you one thing if they come out with the info like jim is going to give or sell there is no reason to ever try to pre fish or fish tournaments cause all the guessing work and solving the problem is going to b done there is no leg work left so even though mr jims work is great and side image is great some times you need to just learn to go an fish if yoiu get rid of all that high tech stuff do you think people could catch fish like people do ? so hopefully they dont comeout with much more or there want bb no sport to fishing

[whrizob]

Originally Posted by sterling21

you know guys i know all this new inventions and knowledge is great to help people out to catch fish , an i will b first to amit that i have side image an want all the new gadgets , and i want all the lake info from all the guys fishing out on the lake but you know i have seen some of the old timers go out with a lil old boat with old rod and reelsno new graphs or gps an catch justt as many ,moreand bigger fish then a man with all the bells and whistles .you know some times its just better to go an just fish .tournaments got love them but when you give all this expensive stuff and info to help people catch fish when it comes down to fishing a man with the most money has the greater advantage over alot of people now i know you have to know how yo use it for it to help somone catch fish but when is enough info and inventions enough ? i dont really know but i can tell you one thing if they come out with the info like jim is going to give or sell there is no reason to ever try to pre fish or fish tournaments cause all the guessing work and solving the problem is going to b done there is no leg work left so even though mr jims work is great and side image is great some times you need to just learn to go an fish if yoiu get rid of all that high tech stuff do you think people could catch fish like people do ? so hopefully they dont comeout with much more or there want bb no sport to fishing

i kinda of disagree! just bc you have the greater technology, doesnt mean you have an advantage. people still have to know how catch the fish. if i m catching fish in a paticular spot on a paticular bait and tell someone about it. they should be able to go catch them too, right? wrong, they still have to know what to do. how many times have you been fishing with someone in the same boat, using the same bait, doing the same thing, and one guy out fishes the other. happens all the time. it could be anything! line size, retrieve speed, ect ect.! mr jims program, from what i remember, is based on the fact that 90% of the fish live in 10% of the water. weve all heard it. his program eleminates the 90% of non productive water. but like i said you still have to know how to catch them. i could have a 100 bass in my swimming pool and give you a rod and reel and lure and tell you to catch em and get them out. and you have to know what to do before you can. technonlogy repeats itself. there is no difference from using a graph from now days to catch fish, then there was for these "old timers" using the first flasher, or liquid crystal graph to catch fish. technology has always been here. it how it is used and understand. i dont feel like its getting out of hand. it never can, fish still adapt and have to be caught! jmo!

[Jim]

Sterling21,

I hear you clearly. We struggled a long time with your issue. Does this information take the "fun" out of fishing. In fact, one of the questions we asked anglers was "Is part of the fun of fishing finding the fish yourself?"

Most of the responses were, "Yes, but we will at least have the confidence that we are looking in good areas." As Whrizob says, you still have to catch them. And as we all know, sometimes that is the hardest part.

I am a fisherman and have been since before I can remember. Part of the fun of fishing is day dreaming about how I am going to go out and catch the biggest or the most next time I go. Rarely does that happen. But the thrill of the hunt and the desire to try new things makes most trips fun whether or not I catch many fish. As far as the computer modeling, that is just an extension of my desire to understand what is happening and why.

With largemouth bass I don't really worry too much about overfishing them. Old Hickory and many other lakes have very healthy populations of fish thanks to the great management of TWRA. (I don't work for them)

Here are a few stats about the lake. It is about 22,500 acres. If I can eliminate 90% of the unproductive water there will still be 2500 acre spread out in the lake that could hold fish. Most really good bass fisherman already know how to do this. But remember there are also, catfish, striped bass, white bass, sunfish, and crappie among others to catch and it takes a really great fisherman to know where all of these different fish are at any time. So maybe it will really spread the fishing pressure out to a wider variety of fish.

And finally, does this change fishing pressure? Maybe a little, but the estimates for Old Hickory fishing effort are staggeringly high already. There are approximately 200,000 fishing trips each year accounting for almost 900,000 hours of fishing effort. There are some 500,000 largemouth caught each year with 40,000 being kept.

Part of the fun of fishing is trying new things. New lures, new tackle, new lakes, new techniques and talking about them with your friends. This is just another new thing to play with that hopefully adds some enjoyment to those who like to know why the fish are doing what they do.

Thanks for your comments, I am really interested to see what everyone thinks.

Take care,
Jim

[Travis C.]

I can see both sides of the coin here. My family has been in the fishing realm for a long time from having friends that fished in the first of Mr Scott's Classic's to my grandfather designing some of Bombers boats to his brother patenting the first ever plastic worm rattles. From a tech perspective anything in your boat or on your boat is a product of technology or "inventions." It can all be considered an advantage over the old time way of doing things. Even go back to the early 90's and boats came with 24lb thrust trolling motors brand new. Can you even imagine that now? That won't even pull some of todays boats. Tech is needed to go forward.

As far as the software Jim is working on, yeah it does eliminate a lot of the learning curve but you still have to be able to apply it on the water. Once you put in your time and gain experience you can do what the software does by looking at a topo and knowing the tendencies of what your after. That is ultimately what those old timers are doing that you see on the water. Lots of experience, trial and error. Regardless of how you came to the decision to fish where you are planning to fish there is still a human factor involved to catching.

It is living thinking predator versus living thinking predator and a computer program can't change that. I remember Rick Clunn talking about this and he said, "We tend to think fish aren't smart due to the size of their brains but if intelligence is measured in using all of your senses to the fullest potential then fish are very smart."

For me my goal is to maximize my time that is spent out on the water. I want to be as effecient as possible since my time is not unlimited out there. I think that is the goal of every angler. Even the weekend rec angler whom may not be fishing tournaments is still strapped to a window he/she has to fish and they want to get the most out of the time on the water.

If this means using a program to help eliminate factors then I am going to use it as a tool but not stop learning by just having that in my corner. The more you can get in your favor the better your odds are to have an enjoyable experience on the water....never stop learning.

[Jim]

Very well said Travis.